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We ran a full simulation of World Cup 2026 in Football Manager 26, and here’s what happened
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Phil Iwaniuk
World Cups happen every four years, which means it’s imperative to wring every last drop of excitement out of them and store it up, as a camel does in the desert, until the next tournament. What I’m saying is this: I sat and watched an entire simulated World Cup in Football Manager 26 weeks before the real thing because I got over-excited. Here’s what happened, or what will happen. That database is famously realistic, after all…
The group stage: an absolute goal frenzy
A total of fifteen group stage matches saw five goals or more. That included France’s ruthless 10-0 demolition of Jordan, Colombia beating that same beleaguered Jordanian squad 9-0, and a particularly tense 4-3 encounter between Argentina and Norway that ended in the Argentinians’ favour.
Jordan shipped 22 goals in three matches, finishing the group stage with the worst overall goal difference, as one might reasonably expect. At the other end of the spectrum, France’s 16 goals scored represented the most potent attack in the tournament so far.
But it’s early days. This is a long tournament, this 48-team format. Anything can happen from here.
Except, hang on: Who’s this? Italy have somehow snuck into the tournament. Despite not having qualified in reality, FM 26 is none the wiser to this fact, and since it simulates the whole 2025-26 season before the World Cup, the in-game Italy obviously fared better and secured its place. Better than that, thanks to an inordinate amount of penalties put away by Riccardo Orsolini (one in all three group stage matches), the Azzurri even qualified for the first knockout round.
The knockout phase: upsets galore
Not every fixture in the first knockout round was a seismic upset—Ireland advanced past Austria with an extra time winner, for example—but there were numerous shocks among these absolutely prosaic results.
Brazil beating tournament favourites England 3-0 is the biggie. Who saw that coming? The Brazilians looked particularly free-scoring in the group stages, but so did England. Anyway, it turns out it’s not coming home. Again.
Italy, who shouldn’t be here in the first place, beat Egypt 3-0 to secure their ticket to the round of 16, and for the first time in the tournament, they didn’t need a converted Riccardo Orsolini penalty to do it.
It’s the end of the line for the last of the co-hosts, Canada and USA, after Mexico failed to even qualify from the group stage. Current holders Argentina beat Canada 3-1, but there's no shame in that. Meanwhile, the USA was dismantled by, um… Jamaica. A team currently ranked 71 in the FIFA world rankings beat the USMT 5-1, and hopes for a domestic victory were extinguished.
Meanwhile, Tunisia have a real underdog story loading, pulling off an incredible 2-1 result against Spain to progress.
Onto the round of sixteen, where Italy refused to cede to reality and continued their tournament progress by beating Ireland 2-1. This round is also where the match of the tournament took place, a blistering nine-goal affair between holders Argentina and Portugal. Neither Messi nor Ronaldo were on the pitch, but with Argentina fighting back from a 4-1 deficit to narrow the final score to 5-4, it was a memorable night with constant attacking action.
England-slayers Brazil were halted by Norway, who won 2-1 to progress to the quarterfinals. Morocco beat Colombia 3-2, although with the latter side down to nine men by the final whistle, you could argue it’s Colombia who defeated themselves on the night. Germany edged past neighbours Holland with an extra time winner, and in the battle of the "how did they make it this far," Tunisia prevailed over Jamaica, who used up all their goals against USA in the last round.
France, now looking like the tournament favorites, finally got their revenge on Senegal 24 years after the African nation humiliated them with a victory over the then-holders in the 2002 World Cup’s opening match. This time there was no fairytale result, but instead a routine 5-0 drubbing in favour of Les Bleus. Belgium beat Nigeria in a frankly tedious 1-0 fixture, and now it’s onto the quarterfinals.
Look, Italy, you need to stop it now. You didn’t qualify. You shouldn’t be here. Stop winning matches; it’s getting awkward. With a 2-0 quarterfinal win over Portugal, FM 26 drifted still further from reality, while Tunisia beat Germany on penalties to tip us over into even more unlikely territory.
Haaland fired Norway past Morocco, while France edged Belgium in a gallic contest for the ages with a 2-1 extra time winner.
Norway met France in the semis, and despite Haaland scoring yet again, it finished 3-2 in favor of France thanks to a brace from Mbappé. Meanwhile, in the Italy vs Tunisia World Cup semifinal—let’s just take a pause to process that sentence—Italy won on penalties. Did Riccardo Orsolini convert his? Of course he did. You know he always does.
The final: France vs… Italy???
This is why we have video games. They answer "what if…" questions for us, like "what if Italy had qualified for this tournament?" And the answer, apparently, is that they would cruise all the way through it and meet France in the final to recreate a genuinely iconic 2006 World Cup final—aka the Zidane panenka Materazzi headbutt game—exactly 20 years later.
France has looked deadly, well-organized, and imperious throughout. Italy… have beaten Egypt, Ireland, Portugal, and Tunisia to get here. Still, with Orsolini’s penalty taking skills and a bizarre renaissance in Federico Chiesa’s form, anything can happen.
The match is uncharacteristically entertaining as World Cup finals go. 3-3 after extra time! Imagine that. France looks the more dangerous side throughout, but it’s Italy who break the deadlock before France fights back and takes the lead. Italy responds, and the deadlock resumes—all the way through extra time, as it turns out.
It goes to penalties, then, just like it did 20 years ago when these sides met in the 2006 final. And just as before, it’s Italy who prevails.
The 2026 World Cup champions: Italy
Look, maybe FM 26 knows something we don’t. Maybe it’s taken those rumors about replacing Iran with Italy seriously. Whatever the reason, here we are with a tournament winner who has not in reality qualified for the tournament and as such almost certainly will not be playing football at that tournament.
Italy fans have to wonder: How different would things be if they’d managed to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina in that final qualifier?
The awards: Mbappé wins Golden Boot, France dominate tournament XI
Onto the really fun bit: the awards. Despite stiff opposition from Erling Haaland (seven goals) and teammate Ousmane Dembélé (seven goals), Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé wins the Golden Boat with his ten goals.
France dominate almost all categories: most goals scored, most players in the tournament XI (more below), and, er, worst disciplinary record.
The goal of the tournament, though, goes to a more unexpected home: Slovenia’s Miha Majc, whose 26-yard daisycutter will live long in the collective memory.
Here’s the tournament XI, if you want to update your shortlist accordingly:
GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Italy)
DR: Achraf Hakimi (Morocco)
DC: Lucas Hérnandez (France)
DC: William Saliba (France)
DL: Federico Dimarco (Italy)
MR: Riccardo Orsolini (Italy)
MC: Martin Ødegaard (Norway)
MC: Bruno Fernandes (Portugal)
ML: Ousmane Dembélé (France)
FC: Erling Haaland (Norway)
FC: Kylian Mbappé (France)
And that’s it for another four years. Or, rather, whenever you feel like getting FM 26 to run the numbers again. If the real tournament doesn’t go the way you wanted, there’s always the sim option.
Football Manager 26 is available now on the Epic Games Store.